Saturday, November 22, 2014

Looking at the Red Sox Position by Position Two Weeks before Winter Meetings

This post will check out the Red Sox at each position in regards to possible winter transactions and the incumbents who have a job all ready claimed.  Two previous posts this off season have concentrated on starting pitching, so we will look at the rest of the team, with a few additional notes on the rotation candidates near the end.  Sprinkled throughout are also mentions of ten deals or so from this winter that have impacted the Sox trade market all ready.

Bullpen-  Unlike the rotation, the re-signing of free agent Koji Uehara leaves the Boston bullpen with stable vets in key spots.  Koji will close with fellow countryman Junichi Tazawa the 8th inning specialist.  Edwin Mujica, who pitched much better post All-Star break in 2014 also returns.  The left handed side of the pen is less settled.  Tommy Layne and Drake Britton, both of who spent the majority of '14 in AAA, are the only incumbent lefties, after the July trade of Andrew Miller and the option declination  of Craig Breslow.  Miller and Breslow are not completely out of the picture.  Breslow could brought back on a cheaper deal than the option declined by the Sox, though I think the Sox will move on from the '13 ALCS star.  Boston would love to grab Miller back, as he is now a free agent with no draft pick attached. But Andrew was so spectacular for Boston and Baltimore in 2014, he may one of the hottest free agents on the market.  It is widely thought he will get a 4 year, $32M deal.  I cannot imagine Boston going there.  Since most of the free agent relievers connected to Boston other than Miler are righties ( Pat Neshek, Luke Gregerson, Luke Hochevar) it may be that Layne and Britton are the Boston bullpen lefties, at least going into spring training.  

I believe any other hurlers to join the bullpen brigade will come from the plethora of young pitchers who have hit Boston in 2013-14.  Whoever is not traded this winter or loses out on a possible starting job should be in the pen.  The approximate order of likely pitchers to land in the pen are: Brandon Workman, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Stephen Wright, Matt Barnes, Edwin Escobar, Anthony Ranaudo.  Also included in this pool are two pitchers from AAA who are all ready relievers: Alex Wilson and Heath Hembree.

Likely 2015 Opening day Bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, Layne, Workman, A. Wilson, Hochevar.

Catcher- Incumbents (from current 40 man roster): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Lavarnway, Dan Butler, Blake Swihart.  In reverse order, Swihart was just added to 40 man roster, and will be the everyday AAA catcher until at least July if not all year.  Butler may have a small chance of being the Boston backup receiver in 2015, but without a veteran ahead of him, that chance gets even smaller.  If not included in a deal, Butler also spends next year in Rhode Island.  Lavarnway, someone whom Boston  apparently had given up on, is inexplicably still on the team.  But if you want to stump your Red Sox friends at a holiday party, ask them who are the five most senior members of the current Red Sox roster, based on when they were most recently added to the 40 man roster.  The answer is David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz (okay so far, right), Junichi Tazawa is #4 and at number 5 is yep, Ryan Lavarnway, who was added to the roster in August 2011. 

Vazquez, all ready renowned for his pitch framing and incredible pop times to second to gun out would be base stealers, is the odds on favorite to be the regular Red Sox catcher in 2015.  The fact John Farrell loves him cements the deal. Only one small fly in the ointment before CV is anointed ( OK two things, he will need to prove he can hit enough to be a starting big league catcher), is if the Red Sox end up aggressively pursuing Cole Hamels from Philadelphia, could Vazquez be included in the deal?  Far-fetched? Philly has reported heavy interest in Swihart, who Boston is very reluctant to trade, as they are with Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts.  Would a package of Vazquez, Henry Owens, and Deven Marrero, Manuel Margot get Hamels or least get close?

The backup backstop spot is wide open and likely to come from outside.  With the Sox lacking left handed hitters the rumors have Sox pursuing a lefty hitter for the #2 catcher spot.  John Jaso of Oakland is effective lefty hitter, but not the most reliable defensive catcher,  Billy Beane likes to deal so Jaso in a real possibility. Two transactions that have all ready occurred this off season could affect the search.  The Tigers were rumored to non tender Alex Avila, but that did pick up his option.  Avila, another lefty hitter, has been the Motown starter for several years, but due to the buildup of injuries, including concussions, many teams view him as a backup from here on out.  For Boston to get  Avila now a trade is needed.  The Angels have traded catcher Hank Conger to Houston which led to rumors that current Astros receiver Jason Castro could be available in trade.  Castro, who once drafted by Boston, would fulfill the left handed hitting need, but he may sought by clubs looking for a starting catcher.  If none of the left handed hitting options pan out, the Sox could re-sign free agent David Ross, who while does not bat lefty, is a perfect mentor for Vazquez.

One last name, going back to the idea of dealing Vazquez to the Phillies.  In that deal the Sox would try to get catcher Carlos Ruiz (who the Sox pursued last winter when he was a free agent) included in the deal.  Ruiz could keep the seat warm for Swihart and then act as mentor/backup for Blake.

Likely Opening day catchers: Christian Vazquez, David Ross


Shaw will start 2015 back at AAA as the every day first sacker.  Shaw has never been considered a blue chip prospect, but he hits left handed and the man has power: 21 home runs last year at Portland and Pawtucket combined.  Nava and Craig are outfielders foremost (although defensively Craig is much better off playing first) who would back up Napoli.

Juan Francisco, the rotund corner infielder, was picked up on waivers this week from the Jays.  The pros: he bats left handed and has power, 16 jacks in '14 with part time at bats.  Cons: he is a crappy defensive player at either first or third.  He could make the team as a bat of the bench, if the Sox clear several members of the existing 1B/3B/OF logjam.  My best guess is that the Sox designate Juan for assignment during the winter to make room on the currently full 40 man roster, maybe signing him to a spring training invite, if he clears waivers.

Mike Napoli is very likely to be the '15 first baseman and will form the power core of the lineup with David Ortiz and Yoenis Cespedes. But there is a definite shortage of right handed power in the game, therefore there are whispers ( reported by Peter Gammons, for one) the Sox may listen on offers for Napoli.  They are also shopping Cespedes reportedly and if Yoenis goes, Napoli almost certainly stays. Another transaction that went down late this week changes somewhat the complexion of the Gammons report.  He said the Sox could deal Napoli for pitching and then sign Adam LaRoche for a lefty bat at first (especially if they fail to get a lefty hitting third baseman).  But Laroche has signed with the other Sox in Chicago.  But could the Sox replace Nap with a Craig/Nava platoon?

One Napoli rumor involves a pitcher I mislabeled somewhat in the trading for pitching post.  Seattle covets Napoli and one rumor is Nap for pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma.  I had called Iwakuma a pitcher Seattle would not trade, but in fact he is a free agent one year from now and may be available for Napoli who also has one year to go on his contract.

Likely Opening day 1st baseman:  Allen Craig/Daniel Nava ( just a feeling I have).

Second base-  Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Jemile Weeks, Sean Coyle

Coyle after an outstanding year at Portland will head to AAA for '15 if he is not traded in a package.  For example, Coyle is from Philly, I hear they have a team there who scouted the Sox system extensively throughout 2014.

I think the Sox may have found something useful in Weeks and if he can play short at all (not sure he can), he could be the utility infielder on this team if Holt isn't.  Holt probably should listed elsewhere because barring a Pedroia disaster Holt is not playing much here.

Pedroia is without question the man here.  Best case scenario he is finally healthy for a whole campaign, and his power resurfaces.  At minimum Pedey can earn another Gold Glove and provide a respectable level of offense.

Opening day second base:  Dustin Pedroia

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts, Holt

Other than Pedroia at second and David Ortiz at DH, Xander has the biggest lock on his position.  If Bogaerts can build on his productive September he will be counted on to provide right handed power, especially if Cespedes and /or Napoli are traded.  Bogaerts will have at least all of 2015 to show he is a MLB caliber shortstop.  One year                                                                                                                 
from now, Deven Marrero may enter the discussion if he can hit at Pawtucket like he did at Portland in'14 and in the Arizona Fall League, not like he did at Pawtucket last year.

Likely Opening day shortstop: Xander Bogarts backed up by Brock Holt.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Red Sox Maineiacs Hot Stove Live Chat

Live Blog Red Sox Maineiacs Hot Stove Live Chat
 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Twenty Questions Hot Stove Edition

As cold weather prepares to swing in Maine this week, the Hot Stove begins to heat up literally and figuratively. How about a round of 20 questions, pertaining to the Red Sox? Feel free to post your answers in the comments section below:

1. Only partially Sox related: Did the Deacon give any insight to the Duffer for his BDN letter to Ben Cherington?
2. Let's Go to the Zoo: Would you give Pablo "The Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval a 5+ year deal?
3. Ace in the Hole: Who will be the Sox "ace" in 2015: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields, Cole Hamels, or Clay Buchholz?
4. A Man in a Gorilla Suit did What: Will Theo Epstein and the Cubs be a thorn in the Red Sox side this winter?
5. Our Pitching Staff...is mediocre: Assuming the Sox do not get Lester, Scherzer, Shields, or Hamels, what pitcher(s) are the Sox most likely to add to bolster their 2015 staff?
6. Our Pitching Staff...is oye: Which "kid" pitchers who auditioned in 2014 (Webster, Ranaudo, De La Rosa, Workman, Barnes) are most likely to be in the 2015 rotation?
7. Koji Time: After watching Koji Uehara struggle to the finish line in 2014, do you feel confident with him as the closer in 2015?
8. If Not Koji, how about Mujica Time: Is Edward Mujica the Sox closer if Koji cannot answer the bell?
9. Call to the Pen: Do the Sox re-sign Burke Badenhop?
10. Call to the Pen, Part II: Who makes up the 2015 Red Sox relief corps?
11. Jenny Dell is nice to look at: Does Jenny actually go through with it and tie the knot with a career .237 hitter? Is that .237 hitter still a member of the Red Sox in 2015?

Sidebar, I saw a recent Tweet from Jenny Dell at a Bruins game with her girlfriends. Lo and behold standing next to Jenny was an MCI alum whose parents live down the street from me. I'm thinking it is only a matter of time before Jenny is strolling the streets of Pittsfield!

12. At the Hot Corner: Who is the Red Sox 3rd baseman in 2015: Brock Holt, Will Middlebrooks, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, Garrin Cecchini, recently retired Kevin Youkilis, Cousin Jason?
13. Yoenis live once: Do the Sox trade Yoenis Cespedes this winter? If so, what is the return?
14. Nava miss an opportunity: Does OBP machine Daniel Nava make the 2015 Sox roster?
15. Glut-tony for Punishment: With a glut of OFers, where do Cespedes, Nava, Allen Craig, Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Shane Victorino, Mookie Betts, Bryce Brentz, and Alex Hassan begin 2015?
16. Backstop: What do the Red Sox do with Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart?
17. Backstop Backup: Who is the Sox #2 catcher to start 2015?
18. A side of Chili: What impact will new hitting coach Chili Davis have on the Sox offense in 2015?
19. The Manager's Desk: After a World Series title and a last-place finish, what do we make of John Farrell's managerial skills?
20. Shortstop: Devin Marrero has had an excellent Arizona Fall League and been dubbed by many industry experts as Brandon Crawford II. Given this information many view Marrero as a nice trade chip. Let's go the other way, given Marrero's skills would you shop Xander Bogaerts?
Bonus: Which members of the last place Red Sox 40 man roster is not expendable?

I hope you all got an extra cord put away, it appears that the Hot Stove will need to be stoked frequently this winter. Enjoy!


Sunday, November 9, 2014

Red Sox Pitching Trade Targets

In the last post we reviewed some available starting pitchers on the free agent market.  Now we will scour  the rosters of the other major league teams for the front line starter, or two, needed by Boston.

First check out these names:

Trevor Cahill
Johnny Cueto
Doug Fister
Scott Kazmir
Ian Kennedy
Mat Latos
Mike Leake
Rick Porcello
David Price
Jeff Samardzija
Jordan Zimmerman

This are among the names of starters that will be free agents one year from now.  Some of pitchers may well re-sign with their current teams in the next year, but if not they may be available in trade this winter for less than you may expect with only the one year of control remaining.

We will go through each division looking for possible trade targets for the Sox.  We will examine the names above and many others looking for these candidates for the 2015 Red Sox rotation.

AL East

There may be a target or two here ( RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle are on that next year free agent list for example) but no one in the AL East is going to trade a top flight pitcher to Boston.

AL Central

Tigers-  Detroit has both David Price and Rick Porcello on the '16 free agent class above, but if they lose Max Scherzer as expected in this winter's free agency, they may be looking to add pitching not trade it.  If the Tigers would listen to offers,  Porcello might make a more attractive target due to his age of 26 and likely a lesser package of players in return than Price.

Royals-  The AL champs will be looking to add pitching to replace James Shields.

Indians- Despite the emergence of Cory Kluber, Tito's team also could still use more pitching.  Danny Salazar would be an interesting target, but I doubt he is available despite his off 2014.

White Sox- Red Sox fans have dreams of getting Chris Sale.  The other Sox have less than a zero per cent interest in dealing him.  They will trade John Danks, another lefty.  The Red Sox should have the same less than zero per cent interest in acquiring Danks.

Twins-  Only Phil Hughes would illicit any interest, and the idea of bringing Hughes back to the AL East is chilling.  Although it would be a hoot to have the former Yankee phenom blossom in Boston instead of the Bronx.

Possible AL Central targets:  David Price, Rick Porcello

AL West

Angels- Despite winning the West the Halos are still looking for pitching themselves.

A's- Billy Beane went all in for 2014 acquiring starters Jon Lester, Jason Hammel ( both free agents now) and Jeff Samardzija, a free agent a year from now. Scott Kazmir will also be a free agent in a year.  The A's prospect cupboard is lean due to some of these deals, especially sending number one prospect Addison Russell to the Cubs.  Between this need to replenish and Beane's always being at the ready to deal,  Samardzija  and to a lesser degree Kazmir are very likely Sox targets.  Samardzija is 30, older than it seems he should be after his years playing football at Notre Dame.  Kazmir, 31, is in his "third" career, first a young phenom with  the Rays, when he was one of the AL's best.  Then his career cratered and he was back in an independent league.  Finally in his third stage he pitched for Cleveland in 2013 and Oakland this year, starting for two teams that went to the wild card playoff game.

Mariners-  Seattle needs offense and there are some rumors they would like to acquire Mike Napoli.  But the M's seem to have pitchers they won't deal ( King Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma),  guys you likely wouldn't want ( Chris Young) or younger pitchers Seattle may or may not deal for Napoli,                     ( Roenis Elias, Taijuan Walker , or James Paxton.)  If Seattle would trade Paxton for Napoli, the Sox should seriously consider it.

Rangers-  Unless Texas decides to shop Yu Darvish or Boston wants to a flyer on Derek Holland, if the pitching starved Rangers would even deal him, there is not much here.

Astros-  There is one attractive option here in lefty starter Dallas Kuechel.  Only 27 years old, Kuechel had a 12-9 record with an ERA of 2.93 in 200 innings.  But eventually the lowly Astros have to stop trading all of their good players.  I think they keep Kuechel unless Houston decides it cannot abide a star player named Dallas.

Possible AL West targets: Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Dallas Keuchel, and maybe James Paxton.

NL East

Nationals-  Despite their division winning 2014, Washington may be looking to deal.  Two very attractive trade targets are on our opening list of free agents from a year from now: Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister.  Fister has had success in the American League with Seattle and Detroit, and in 2014 had an outstanding 16-6 record with an ERA of 2.41 ( fourth in the NL) .  Despite the presence of Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez,  Zimmerman was the Nats ace.  But that same presence of Strasburg and Gio, would allow Washington to deal one of these starters, sign the other and still have a formidable rotation.  The Sox have the players to make a deal here, but one issue might be the Nats most pressing need is a second baseman.  So unless the Sox will trade Mookie Betts for Zimmerman, for example, the talks may be protracted.  The word in the industry is that the Sox hope to keep Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart.  Either way Washington is a team I am sure Ben Cherington is calling often.

Braves-  Atlanta has attractive, young pitching like Alex Wood and Julio Teheran, but they are not likely available.  Instead the Braves are said to be shopping outfielders Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers.  Despite Boston's outfield crush of about ten guys, do not be completely shocked if Jason Heyward is the starting right fielder for Boston next Opening Day.  On the other hand Kate Upton has a better chance of playing in Boston's outfield than BJ Upton.  Justin Upton's chances fall somewhere between Kate's and BJ's.

Marlins-  If the Sox decide to pull an under the radar pitching trade and go for a younger talent rather than a big name ace, Miami has "about a dozen" big time arms according to a recent column by Peter Gammons. Among the names who all ready have some big league time are Jarred Cosart, Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, Brad Hand, and Andrew Heaney.  Last winter, the Marlins expressed an interest in Will Middlebrooks, could that be the start of a deal?  Now if Miami just had any offensive players Boston would be willing to trade for.

Mets- This is one of the few teams with pitching to trade.  With 2013 rookie star, Matt Harvey returning  from injury, he joins vet Bartolo Colon, '14 rookie Jacob DeGrom, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler,  and upcoming rookie Noah Syndergaard.  Lefty Jon Niese who will be 28 next year is the most available according to reports.  I think the preferred Sox target (assuming Harvey, DeGrom, and Syndergaard are not available) is Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler is only 24 and was 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA and 187 K's in 185 innings in 2014.   The one name most connected to the Mets from Boston is Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets are looking everywhere for a power hitter for the outfield ( as well as a shortstop).  I think it is possible you could get Niese more or less straight up for Yoenis.  Wheeler would take Cespedes and probably two more good prospects.  Maybe as Cousin Jason suggested a package of Cespedes and Deven Marreo, and then another lesser pitching prospect.  If Cespedes was signed for three more years instead of one, you may be able to discuss Harvey or DeGrom, I would be happy to come away with Wheeler.

Phillies- With Cliff Lee injured (and old), there is only one target here.  The frequently rumored to Boston ace, Cole Hamels.  I agree that Hamels is the most similar pitcher in the game to free agent Jon Lester.  And I get the point that Hamels  has four years $96M left on his deal, which about what the Sox would have liked to sign Lester for.  There are two problems, maybe both are surmountable.  First, Lester is a proven Boston commodity, he can pitch and win here.  Hamels is not.  But I will give you that Philly is no picnic to thrive in either and Cole has.  And he has pitched well in October back when the Philies were good.  The second, much bigger problem, is the price of acquiring Hamels in players needed to be traded.  Ruben Amaro, the Philadelphia GM, is the most out of touch, hard to deal with GM in the game.  Last July he reportedly asked for the Cubs top three prospects for Hamels.  In other words a package of Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart or Henry Owens would be comparable.  That deal will not happen.  The answer to this problem may be Pat Gillick.  The long time baseball man has been installed as Phillies president.  Gillick has all ready said the Phillies are rebuilding for at least the next two years.  Maybe the Phillies would listen to a package of something like Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, Sean Coyle, and younger prospect or two.

Possible NL East targets: Jordan Zimmerman, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Doug Fister, Jon Niese, any Marlins young starter.

NL Central

Cardinals- I hear St. Louis has a veteran starter with post season success who is pitching for the major league minimum in 2015.  Maybe we could get him.  Cards have lots of young arms, but no one specifically rumored to be on the block.

Pirates-  With Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez free agents, the Buccos will be looking to add pitching not trade it.

Brewers-  Two or three years ago, every week a Matt Garza to Boston rumor floated.  But his 8-8 '14 campaign in Milwaukee means Garza would only be a fifth starter type and the Sox have those.  Yovanni Gallardo, at age 29, would be the prime target here.  After winning between 12 to 17 games each year from 2009 to 2013, Yovanni went only 8-11 in '14. But his ERA of 3.51 was actually the lowest of his career. He has also been durable with between 30 to 33 starts in each of the last six seasons.  He could be a #2 starter at least in Boston.

Reds- This is the mother lode of potentially available top starting pitching.  In the Reds five man rotation they have signed one starter to a $100M contract a year ago, Homer Bailey.  All four of the other starters are free agents after the 2015 season: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Alfredo Simon.  Simon is a 35 year old who unexpectedly joined the Cincy rotation in 2014, and at his age not a trade target.   On the other hand Leake and Latos  are both just 28, which would make both attractive to the Sox. But Leake is not an ace per se.  Latos was traded to the Reds from the Padres at a young age for a big package of top Cincinnati prospects.  Latos has suffered some injuries which lowers his value, but it is not out of the question he could a front of the rotation type guy.   Cueto is the real prize here. He was a 20 game winner in 2014 with an ERA of 2.25 ( second best to Clayton Kershaw in the NL), and 242 strikeouts in 243.2 innings pitched.  His WHIP was 0.96.  Cueto is only a year older than Leake and Latos at 29.  Trading for Cueto would be the deal most comparable to trading for Pedro Martinez back in the 1990's. Like the Mets, the Reds have a rumored interest in a power hitting left fielder, namely Yoenis Cespedes.  Normally acquiring Cueto would cost a bundle in players.  But the Reds will not be able to sign Cueto, Latos, and Leake with Bailey all ready at $100M and first baseman Joey Votto with a deal at more than twice the size of Bailey's.  That may be all the major deals the mid-sized market Reds can afford.  And with Cueto a year from free agency his price should drop some.  There was a report this week from a Reds beat writer that Cincy would keep all the pitchers and go for it all in 2015 and let them walk as free agents if need be.  I doubt that is a smart way to run a mid sized team, but if true, the red Sox will line up next winter to sign Cueto as a free agent.

Cubs- The only connection to Theo's Cubs and Boston on the pitching front may be competing to acquire the same guys. Lester, Shields, Hamels, et al.

Possible NL Central targets: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Yovanni Gallardo, Mike Leake, Matt Garza

NL West

Giants-  The only player the Sox and their successors as World Champs will compete for is Pablo Sandoval, no pitching coming from San Fran.

Dodgers- No one available in LA either.

Padres-  30 year old Ian Kennedy is on the one year from now free agent list. He won 13 games with an ERA of 3.63 in 2014 and while he could help fill out the Sox rotation, he is not the ace they need.  Some one who could develop into the ace they need soon is the under the radar ( for East Coast fans, at least) Tyson Ross.  Ross who turns 28 next April, was 2008 A's draftee. Ross pitched three years in Oakland before being traded to San Diego before the 2013 campaign. His four year record from 2010 to 2013 was 9-26 before blossoming last year with a 13-14 record with a 2.81 ERA and was a member of the NL All-Star team.  He started 31 games for the Padres with 195 strikeouts.

Rockies-  Unless the Sox want Franklin Morales back nothing here.

Diamondbacks- One intriguing name from our opening 2016 free agent list: Trevor Cahill.  Cahill was a young star for Oakland when he was unexpectedly dealt to Arizona two off seasons ago.   After winning 53 games in four A's seasons, he has had two poor seasons since his trade: 8-10 and 3-12 in 2014.  Cahill would be a big gamble but if picked up cheaply could be a comeback candidate.

Possible NL West targets: Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill

So after this exercise here is a list of twenty possible Red Sox trade targets for this winter.  The list is in an order based on desirability to the Red Sox and their realistic availability ( according to various reports).  And a bit of the potential cost thrown in the order as well.

1.   Johnny Cueto
2.   Jordan Zimmerman
3.   Jeff Samardzija
4.   Cole Hamels
5.   Mat Latos
6.   Zack Wheeler
7.   Doug Fister
8.   Tyson Ross
9.   David Price ( unlikely to be available, but too good to leave off list)
10. Rick Porcello ( same as Price)
11. Yovanni Gallardo
12. Scott Kazmir
13. Ian Kennedy
14. Mike Leake
15. Jon Niese
16. Dallas Kuechel
17. Marlins Young Pitchers
18. Trevor Cahill
19. James Paxton
20. Matt Garza

While I do believe the Red Sox will be aggressive in free agent pitching market, it is much more likely one or two of the new Red Sox arms come from this list or some other unexpected trade this off season.









Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Red Sox Shopping List of Free Agent Starting Pitchers

 Having culled through the list of starting pitchers on this winter's free agent market, I have come up with a ranking of the best fifteen names.  Here are those pitchers with  comments pertaining to possible Red Sox interest.

Tier One

1.  Jon Lester, LHP Oakland.  Nothing has changed in my mind since last spring training, Lester is still the guy who makes the most since for Boston to drop their biggest contract offer onto.  They know he can handle the Boston scene and produce in October.  Can they sign him now that he was traded away in July? Everything said by the Sox and Lester since the trade leads one to believe a deal can be made. But will the Sox offer be blown away by a bigger spender?  The two suitors mentioned most often- Yankees and Cubs- have been dropping hints (misdirection?) they will not spend on pitching this winter.  The Yanks because they are all ready drowning in big $$ deals and the Cubs, as theorized by Buster Olney and others, may wait until next winter when David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman, and others hit free agency.  If the Yankees and Cubs sit out the Lester sweepstakes it improves Boston's chances but teams like Seattle ( who really needs hitters more) and the Tigers ( to replace Max Scherzer) still loom, to name just two.  If the Lester offers get to the rumored 7 year 180M territory, the Sox will look elsewhere.  One last plus for Boston, Lester could not be given a qualifying offer (QO) due to his mid season trade.  So the team that signs Lester will not lose a draft pick.

2. Max Scherzer, RHP Detroit. The 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner is probably the number one guy on most team's list, but to me Lester would make more since in Boston.  Max turned down 6 years 144M this spring from Detroit. He is said to be gunning for a 200M contract.  He will not get it in Boston.

3.  James Shields, RHP Kansas City.  If Lester gets priced out of the Boston market, Shields is the most likely Red Sox free agent addition.  Shields would eat over 200 innings for the Boston rotation, and would fill the #2 spot.  But despite his Big Game James moniker, he is nor really a number one ace.  The AL Champs Royals did place the QO on Shields, so the signing team forfeits a draft pick.  Since Boston has a top ten pick (#7) next June, its first round pick is protected meaning Shields ( or other pitchers on this list with a QO) would cost a second round pick.

Tier Two

4. Brandon McCarthy, RHP NY Yankees.  McCarthy was traded from Arizona to New York in July. In Arizona he was 3-10 with an ERA over 5.  After joining the Yankees, he was 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA. McCarthy has always pitched well when not injured, but he has been injured a lot.  If it is true New York will skip bidding on the top three above, keeping McCarthy will be their first goal.  I think he stays in New York, but if the Yankees change direction the Sox will show some interest.

5. & 6. Francisco Liriano, LHP Pittsburgh and Ervin Santana, RHP Atlanta.  I have listed these two as an entry because both of their stories from a Boston point of view are nearly the same.  First, both hurlers have the QO attached to them.  There have been whispers that if the Sox get shutout on the top three, either of these two could be Sox targets.  Both pitchers have spent time in both leagues with up and down seasons in each. If either (both?) would sign for a two year deal between 20-30M total Boston might go for that, but I find it hard to believe Boston would give up a second round draft pick for Liriano or Santana.

7. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP NY Yankees.  Kuroda fits on this list talent wise, but in reality it seems (the same as last winter when he was a free agent), Hiroki will only sign with the Yankees, Dodgers ( his first MLB team), or return to Japan to pitch or retire.

8. Justin Masterson, RHP St. Louis.  This is the most likely name on the entire list to sign with the Red Sox.  Justin broke in with Boston.  He has a familiarity with Boston and John Farrell.  He was traded in July so like Lester, he by rule could not have a QO, so no draft pick compensation needed.  And Boston can get him from the bargain bin due to his terrible, injury plagued (non-arm) 2014 season.  Masterson was 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA.  But in 2013 for Cleveland he went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 193 innings pitched.  Masterson. also won in double digits in 2011 and 2012.  There are two schools of thought on the type of deal Justin is looking for.  One thought is a one year revive his career deal, the other theory is a 3 year deal for around 36M.  I think Boston would jump at either, especially the one year deal.

9. Jake Peavy, RHP San Francisco.  Peavy's performance with the World Champs after being traded from Boston likely will earn him a new two or three year deal.  But it will likely be in the NL and certainly will not include a return to Boston.  Thanks for the 2013 memories, Jake.

Tier three

10. Edinson Volquez, RHP Pittsburgh.  As a 24 year old with Cincy, Volquez looked like a superstar with a 17- 6 season.  But Volquez will be 32 next July, and has never matched that 17 win campaign due to injuries and inconsistency.  2014 may well have been his best season since then, he was 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA for the NL wild card Pirates.  If the Red Sox get completely shut out on the better choices above, I suppose they could take a flyer on Volquez. But I think he is better suited for the NL.

11. Brett Anderson, LHP Colorado.  If the Red Sox could wave a magic wand of good health over Anderson, he would jump to the top of this list.  Anderson, who has pitched mostly for the A's is still only 27 years old.  And the lefty has a career ERA of 3.73.  But he has been a repeat of former Oakland hurler, Rich Harden, when healthy a great young pitcher but he is so rarely healthy.  Not out of the question the Sox would sign him to a short term incentive laden deal.

12. Jason Hammel, RHP Oakland.  Hammel pitched well enough in early 2014 to be traded to Oakland with Jeff Samardzija. He could be useful to fill out the back of a rotation, but Boston is shopping for front end candidates. It is more likely Boston starts 2015 with Samardzija than Hammel.

13. AJ Burnett, RHP Philadelphia.  AJ turned down a player's option to become a free agent and forfeited 12.5M from the Phillies.  Burnett may have a year left in his arm, but he cannot thrive in the AL East.

14. Brandon Morrow, RHP Toronto.  The Blue Jays declined to pick up Morrow's option placing him on the market.  Another pitcher who looked the part of a future ace in his younger years in Seattle, but Morrow is another injury prone guy.  Two months or so ago, there were whispers of Red Sox interest in Morrow if the Jays cut him loose, due to John Farrell's time with him in Canada.  Brandon, who was born on July 26, 1984, still has time to salvage his career as starter or in some team's bullpen. It could be in Boston, but he is not likely to be the ace the Sox need.

15. Ryan Vogelsong, RHP San Francisco.  Ryan has been useful to a team that has won multiple World Series titles.  That is about all you can say about his attractiveness on the free agent market.

There are few other starting pitching candidates on the free agent list ( Kevin Correia, Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis for example) but if the Sox find any rotation help it will likely be high on this list.  Or in a trade or two, which will be the subject of the next post coming soon.