Sunday, June 3, 2012

2012 Baseball Amateur Draft--June 4th

As this is written the baseball draft is one day away.  On draft eve,  I will update the Red Sox possible scenarios in this draft.  Last week, I listed 24 names plus a few special cases that had been mentioned as Sox possible draftees.  According to several of the industry's more respectable info and mock draft sites ( especially Baseball America's Jim Callis,  Keith Law of ESPN, and Scout.com), the list is down to about 16 to maybe 20 names for the Sox two first round picks at 24 and 31.  Number 31 is the Phillies' pick compensation for losing Paplebon, the Sox also have a sandwich round pick at 37 as part of the Paplebon package.  Although a number of names have been weeded off the previous list, there is also a new name or two on this list.

#24 possibilities (**= also mocked at 31 as well)

**Marcus Stroman, RHP Duke.  Not on the list before because every expert expected he would go anywhere from 8-16.  But he has been dropping for two connected reasons.  Stroman is 5'8" and because of this nearly everyone is projecting him as a bullpen guy and teams are hoping for a higher ceiling from a first rounder.   His comp is Tom Gordon, in size and stuff.  And his stuff is what makes him a likely first round pick.  Fastball up to 98 with a nasty plus slider, as well as decent change.  Most electric arm in the entire draft is a frequent scouting comment, as well the belief Stroman could pitch in the pen this year in the big leagues.  A few folks believe his ceiling is #3 starter, but the majority feel it is the bullpen.

Stryker Trahan C Lafayette, LA HS  A high school catcher whose best asset is his bat, but scouts believe could stay behind the plate in pro ball.  His rating puts him in the 20-32 area, not so sure the Sox are that interested but one high placed mock puts him at 24.

** Tanner Rahnier, So Cal HS SS  He was on the our list last week, an outstanding offensive player who has skipped his last 3 years of HS ball to play in an independent. wooden bat league in California. "Plays like his shoe are on fire".  In a Boston based podcast this weekend,  Jim Callis  said this is one of the two names he hears most connected to the Sox.  However, in the last week almost every mock draft has him going to the Braves at 21.  If he gets by 21, he could be the Sox pick at 24 or they could gamble on Rahnier still sitting on the board at 31, as some mocks have it.

Tyler Naquin OF Texas A&M   Called by many the best pure hitter in the draft with a very strong arm, as well.  Only one mock draft I have seen has him gone before 24, that again is to the Braves at 21. It may be whoever Atlanta chooses from Rahnier/Naquin may be left for Boston.  The reason "the best pure hitter" is not rated higher is his power portion of his hitting is not outstanding, and scouts feel without the power to play RF, he may need to play CF. And because of a speedier teammate at A&M, he has not played any CF, and scouts are not sure he can handle center defensively.  Not out of the realm he could still be there at 31 as well.

**Addison Russell SS Florida HS  Again a strong hitter who is projected to go 20-30, although rumored to be among Oakland's options at 11.  Yankees also interested at 30, but the later info has NYY strongly leaning to a HS pitcher.

** Zach Eflin RHP Florida HS  Fastball up to 96, has dropped from a sure top 15 pick due to triceps tendinitis this spring. Several mocks have him going to Giants at 20, otherwise he should be there at 24.  Keith Law of ESPN is adamant that the Sox will not take a HS pitcher at 24, and probably not at 31, either, waiting until 37.

Stephen Piscotty 3B Stanford A right handed John Olerud is what Piscotty is called by scouts.  His name is being projected all over the board from the mid teens down to near the end of the first round.  If the Sox a looking for a college bat, Naquin or this guy could be it

DJ Davis, OF Mississippi HS  None of the mocks I checked had Davis as this pick although several mentioned him as in the mix.  This is the second name Callis mentioned in the podcast as most heard as connected to Boston.  He has off the charts blazing speed and athleticism.

Matt Smoral LHP Ohio HS Some earlier mocks had him as the pick at 24. Very little mention lately mostly because he is expected to be gone, maybe as high as 13 to the White Sox.  The other school of thought is the Sox avoid him due to broken foot suffered this spring.

Victor Roache OF Georgia Southern  He is a third candidate for college hitter at 24.  He hit 30 home runs in his soph season, but a broken wrist short circuited his junior season.  If healthy, he is a corner OF with big time power.

Besides the ten above two more names to mention.  HS 3B Joey Gallo,  best power in the draft this Nevada HS kid's name is again all over the mocks.  I suspect the Red Sox prefer other hitters ahead of Gallo.  Lastly Gavin Cecchini, the kid brother of Sox minor leaguer Garin would be the Sox pick if he ever got to 24.  Strong hitter and SS from Louisiana HS, the lowest I have seen go in mocks is 22 to Toronto, and the Cards pick 23rd and they also have interest.  He also could go as high as 10 to the Rockies or 12 to the Mets.  If he is at 24 I bet the Sox pop him.





31 Possibilities

Walker Weichel RHP Florida HS-In the last preview I mistakenly said he was from Washington state.  However his Olympia HS is in Florida.  There is a grouping of HS pitchers around this ranking, if the Sox take a college bat at 24, I think this increases the chance of a HS pitcher here.

Nick Travieso RHP Florida HS  and Hunter Virant  LHP Camirillo, CA HS  same story with this pair as with Weichel, similar rankings and reports, again Keith Law of ESPN does not see the Sox taking a HS pitcher with this pick.  We will see.

Corey Seager 3B North Carolina HS  Brother of Mariners Kyle Seager is considered a strong lefty power hitter, plays SS in HS.  He is possibly a tough sign or he would be ranked much higher, and may be taken as high as mid first round.  If he is there at 31, I think he is the Sox pick, especially if they take a pitcher like Stroman at 24.

Brian Johnson LHP UFlorida  The college lefty projects to a back of rotation starter with solid but not electric stuff.  He could still be around at 37.  A high school bat at 24 would increase Johnson's chances to be picked here.

Also the asterisked names above are in play at 31.

37 Just a few names.

Travis Jankowski OF Stony Brook  My favorite to be picked here.  Scouts feel he would be an outstanding leadoff hitter.  Has had an outstanding America East career with the bat, not a power hitter, more of a doubles hitter.

Nolan Fontana SS UFlorida  Latest USA Today/ESPN coaches poll has Florida at #1 in college baseball, and Fontana is a steady SS for that club.  Could get to the majors rather quickly as a steady but not spectacular SS.

Barrett Barnes OF Texas Tech  A name not on our last list, he is a right handed power bat who could play LF or CF.  He has above average speed, but  below average arm.  Noted to have a quick bat with good plate approach, but some holes in the swing to be rectified in the pros.  If Sox do not get a college bat in first two picks they could look here ( or at Jankowski) at 37.


I will update this post  up to and during the draft tomorrow night. For now my guess for the Sox at 24-31-37 is Stroman, Seager, and Jankowski.


49 comments:

  1. Boy it looks like Stroman could be a steal at 24 if he drops that far. He sounds like one of the mini mights in the Royals bullpen. Perhaps the height won't scare them off and they must pick before the Sox. I would love to see the Sox get Stroman or Cecchinni with the #24 pick. A lot of possibilities with their next two picks.

    The new draft rules could make for an interesting signing period for this year's draft. The deadline for signing is about one month sooner and teams will have less money to spend. Usually when you have a paradigm shift like this it takes one year for the transition to take place and it's usually a power struggle. I think you'll see a lot of players not sign this year.

    Tomorrow night should be fun. I look forward to updates throughout the night.

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    1. Here are thre more last minute mocks for the Red Sox

      John Sickels, Minor Legue Ball website

      24. Joey Gallo
      31. Victor Roache

      This would be a draft of both the top rated HS and collere power bats

      Jim Callis, BA draft day mcok

      24. Marcus Stroman
      31. Tanner Rahnier

      have not seen his entire mock yet,interesting that Stroman is still considered available at 24 and Rahnier makes it all the way to 31.

      Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

      24. Gavin Cecchini
      31. Zach Eflin

      First mock to project Gavin Cecchini sliding to 24, I am quite sure Boston will take him if he is there. Eflin a hard throwing HS righty has been the projection on at least 2 other mocks along the way at 31.

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  2. Keith Law's draft day mock has Marcus Stroman going 23 to St. Louis one pick before the Sox , with Boston then taking Stephen Piscotty over Tyler Naquin. He has HS P Shane Watson going at 31 to Boston. If the Sox are looking for a college bat, one guy expected to go 8-15 is slipping maybe. He is Richie Shaffer, a corner infielder from Clemson. He could be a name to watch tonight as well/

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  3. 1. Hou- Carlos Correa SS
    2. Min- Byron Buxton OF
    3. Sea- Mike Zunino C
    4. Bal- Kevin Gausman RHP
    5. KC- Mike Zimmer RHP
    6 CHC- Albert Almora OF
    7. SD- Max Fried LHP

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  4. For fans hoping for Gavin Cecchini, a pick was just made to help out. The Pirates took P Mark Appel, the presumed #1 overall pick going into the draft. This morning's rumors had Pittsburgh taking OF David Dahl. At #12 the Mets are looking at Dahl and Cecchini, leaning to Dahl. This Pitt. pick may let the Mets have Dahl and leave Gavin on the board....for now.

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  5. The first player sometimes linked to Boston has been taken. HS SS Addison Russell goes at #11 to Oakland. He had also been mentioned for the Yankees at #30. Also the most recent Keith Law mock had him at 23 for St. Louis, could this affect who goes one pick before the Sox at 24?? The flip side of the A's pick is HS slugger Joey Gallo was frequently listed as the A's pick, he has also been linked to Boston and he is still on the board.

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  6. 9. Mia- Andrew Heaney LHP
    10. Col-David Dahl OF
    11. Oak- Addison Russell SS
    12. Gavin Cecchini SS

    There goes Cecchini Sox fans you can cross him off your wish list.

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  7. And the Mets take Gavin Cecchini at 12. I think it was a long shot for him to get to 24. Russell and Cecchini are now off the list for Boston.

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  8. The next 4 teams to pick White Sox, reds, Indians, Nats are all expected to be looking for a college pitcher or maybe a college bat. If Stroman is going to get to 24 this is the first patch he will need to slide by.

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  9. Reds took a H.S. pitcher at 14 named Nick Travieso and the White Sox took a H.S. outfielder named Courtney Hawkins (who did an impressive backflip live on MLB network) at number 13. So no College pitchers yet in this stretch of four teams with two picks to go.

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  10. Despite what the experts on the MLB network said the Indians didn't take a College pitcher either. They took Tyler Naguin an OF from Texas A&M who the Deacon had identified as someone the Sox may be interested in. Naguin was called "the best pure hitter" in the draft by some scouts and he has an above average throwing arm which would be attractive to the Red Sox.

    16. Was- Lucas Giolito RHP

    So no College pitchers taken with picks #13-16. Is there a chance that Stratton drops to 24?

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  11. Not only does Stroman get thru the 13-16 picks but two other college pitchers expected to go here or higher, Michael Wacha and Christ Stratton are also still alive. The Nats taking Giolito may affect the Sox because the Jays pick next and were looking at him. Both Toronto and St. Louis have two picks between 17-23, before the Sox. Also Clemson slugger Richie Shaffer is still available. Tyler Naquin at 15 to the Indians was higher than expected he was mocked to the Sox at 24 or often between 24 and 31.

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  12. In theory St. Louis is the only team looking Stroman now between here and the Sox at 24, and they have two shots at him.

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  13. If the Sox are looking for a college player as speculated, after one more pick they would have at least one of Richie shaffer, Deven Merrero ( Arizona St. SS, who until a day or so was thought to be a lock at 8 to the Pirates), Texas A&M P Michael Wacha, Miss. St. RHp Chris Stratton ( who in our post last week was the player I choose as the guy I wanted but wouldn't get to 24) or Marcus Stroman. Supposedly the teams coming up Cards, Giants, Braves,Jays, Cards are all leaning to HS picks, we will see if that changes.

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  14. 13. Chisox Courtney Hawkins, OF
    14. Reds Nick Travieso. P
    15. Cleve Tyler Naquin, OF
    16.Wash Lucas Gilito, P
    17Tor DJ Davis OF
    18 LAD Corey Seager, 3B
    19 St. L Michael Wacha, P
    20 SF Chris Stratton, P

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  15. 21 Atl. Lucas Sims P

    Several names assoicated with Sox and 2 or 3 expected to go earlier,should be alive. with jays and Cards to pick first names on the list are Tanner Rahnier, Joey Gallo, Deven Merrero, Marcus Stroman, Richie Shaffer Stephen Piscotty

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  16. 22Tor Marcus Stroman P

    Not only do Sox not get Stroman but he ends up in the AL East, damn....I think they will go hitter either Gallo or Shaffer, maybe Marrero

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  17. Tyler Rahnier also mentioned a lot with Boston, Cal HS SS he or Gallo if they go the HS route.

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  18. 23 St. L James Ramsey OF

    If Sox take a guy tied to them rumor wise it will be Rahnier, but no one expected Shaffer or Marrero to be here ?? I will guess Tanner Rahnier

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  19. 24 Bos Deven Marrero SS

    This player was never mentioned in connection to Boston because no one expected him on the board at 24. Many, many mocks had at 8 to the Pirates , no one lower than 16 to the Nats. His rep is an outstanding defender with an okay bat. Peter Gammons on MLB TV called him the best player in the Cape League last summer. This pick could be Iglesias insurance. Onto pick 31.

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    Replies
    1. The last Sun Devil SS the Sox selected worked out pretty well!

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  20. Shaffer goes to the Rays at #25 let's hope that Shaffer doesn't end up being a lot better than Marrero.

    26. ARI- Stryker Trahan C

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  21. I love the name Stryker Trahan!

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  22. 25 tampa Richie shaffer 3B
    26 Ariz. Stryker trahan C
    27 & 28 Milw Clint coulter, C and Victor Roache OF

    Two picks before the Sox at 31, if they go to HS pick this time as they often split their top picks the hitters are Tanner Rahnier or Joey Gallo. Pitchers linked to Sox include Matt Smoral and Zach Eflin. Lance Mc Cullers a top 15 talent at P is still on the board but at this 331 slot he may be hard to sign with out drafting some under slot guys later on

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  23. Well we've got back to back catchers with cool names. The Brewers took Clint Coulter C with the 27th pick.

    Victor Roache goes #28 also to Milwaukee who had Detroit's pick for the signing of Prince Fielder

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    Replies
    1. The Pirates should have taken Clint Coulter! All Clints belong in Pittsburgh.

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  24. Lewis Brinson OF at #29 to the Rangers. Sox are two away I'll say they go with Smoral.

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  25. 29 Tex Lewis Brinson OF

    Yanks are next most every rumor has them going after a HS pitcher which would leave Gallo, Rahnier, College bat, Stephen Piscotty and any pitcher the Yankees don't take. They could take a flyer on McCullers, they have also been rumored to be after 2 pitchers no one rated in first round, Berrios and Gueller.

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  26. 30 NYY Ty Hensley HS P

    Sox on the clock I will guess Joey Gallo, who went as high as 11 in several mocks, with the hope tanner Rahnier is still there at 37. if it is a P it will be Zach Eflin.

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  27. The Red Sox select Ryan Johnson LHP from Univ of Florida

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    1. Pete Abe has him as Brian Johnson. Brian MacP called him a "safe, low-upside" pick. Throws 90. Meh.

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    2. It is Brian Johnson I was rushing trying to get the info out. My bad.

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  28. Ben Cherington and Co. seem to be adopting the Patriots draft philosophy by taking a player at the end of the 1st round that would have been available with their next pick. Baseball draft is a crapshoot, but it seems like they passed on some good potential talent to select a LH bullpen specialist. Brian Johnson must be good on special teams.

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  29. 31 Bos. Brian Johnson LHP A lefty starter from the highly rated Univ. of Florida team. He is described as " projects as back end strter. Low 90's fastball, solid curveball, slider an change. Considered a "safePick" in other words very likely to pith in big leagues, maybe sooner than some other draftees. He is also considered someone who may be willing to sign for under his slot money... maybe the Sox are saving some cash to something at 37...Gallo or McCullers, both considered tougher signees.

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    1. This is from Jon Meoli at Soxprospects.com: Johnson is Team USA, low mileage arm, maybe signability. May not be eHarmony, but Sox do have a type. A nice positive spin on the Johnson pick. Johnson apparently hit 3 HR's for Team USA. Has never fully focused on developing as a pitcher.

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  30. Here comes the compensation round a.k.a the lightning round with 1 minute to make picks. Sox pick at 37 which will happen at about 10:37 Here we go...Can the Sox get Smoral or Eflin at 37?

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  31. Eflin is gone SD takes him at #33

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  32. btw Matt Jankowski of Stony Brook has not been in the discussion yet for picks, but the Sox may look at him perhaps in the second round. Either way he's going to be happy as Stony Brook won their regional tonight and are heading to a super regional.

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  33. Sox take Pat Light RHP from Monmouth. Nothing but safe college picks tonight hopefully they pan out.

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  34. At 37 The Red Sox go the college route again and take Monmouth Univ, RHP Pat Light, in one or two early mocks he was the Sox 37 pick but most considered him down the board from here. Interesting pick with several naes they supposedly were in on still on the board....Gallo, Rahier, Smoral and others.

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  35. From what I'm reading it sounds like Light has more upside than the first two picks depending on role...sounds like he has a big time fastball that could translate into a late-inning role.

    So a soft-hitting, slick-fielding SS, a light-throwing control-dependent LHP, and a blazing-fastball no stamina relief pitcher. Am I right? Interesting.

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  36. With the 39th pick the Rangers take Gallo and Twitter is abuzz with his perfect raw power and arm strength ratings. We're set at 3B, but still...raw power and arm strength sound awfully good.

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  37. Did Bill Belichick sneak into the Sox draft room? Word on the street is that Marrero, Johnson and Light are good on special teams!!

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  38. The Red Sox have selected High School RHP Jamie Callahan from South Carolina in the 2nd round

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  39. With pick #118 overall and their 4th round selection the Red Sox have selected Austin Maddox a RHP from Florida. He was Florida's closer and fits in with the Sox history of drafting college closers.

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  40. The Sox have potentially boosted their overall draft in round 4 by grabbing HS RHP Ty Buttery. He was mocked to go as high as 21, and really out of the sandwich round. He has dropped to to signability issues. The Sox plan to sigh him must inclie rounds 5 thru nine where they picked 3 more college pitchers , a college 1B, and ss. None of whom are highly ranked leading to speculation they will all sign for $100, 000 or so leaving a couple mil or so to sign Buttery.

    Two other notes. Apparently 2nd round pick HS pitcher Jamie Callahan has all ready signed. Other note invloves first pick Deven Marrero, there is a fierce defense being mounted on several websites claiming that calling Marrero a weak hitter is flat out wrong. He had a lesser junior season causing him to drop. The Sox scooped him up a la Bryce Brentz and Jackie Bradley in the past two drafts. Baseball America in the draft preview publication rated Marrero as the player ( not Pitchers) closest to being ready to play in the bigs.

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    1. The injury may explain his junior season struggles but he has declined since his freshmen year. His sophomore year wasn't that strong either, but I guess he had some strong tourneys for Team USA and some good summer league stats which the Sox put a lot of stock in.

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