Red Sox All Star Prospectus 2013

We are delayed in releasing our Red Sox All-Star Prospectus this season as the third release of voting has been released by Major League Baseball. I started to put together this piece around the second release but, have not completed it until now.

34 players will make the AL All-Star team for the game to be played at Citi Field, the home of the New York Mets on July 16^th. The 9 starters and the Final Selection will be determined by the fans.

In the latest release, it is apparent that last seasons post-season run has excited the fans in Baltimore as Orioles' players are all over the top few vote getters at each position. In this post, we will look at the potential for AL All-Stars based on each team needing a representative and estimating who will end up as the top vote getters. We will also discuss the prospects of the Sox to make the squad.

Starters

C Joe Mauer, Minnesota

Mauer currently has a comfortable lead of almost 512,000 on Matt Wieters of the Orioles. If the starting position was based on stats alone Mauer would assuredly be the choice. Even though it is based on the fan vote, Mauer should still feel comfortable about getting the starting nod. However, if Wieters were to beat out his Twins counterpart, it would most likely take away a spot from a deserving player as Wieters at this point would not make the squad.

1B Chris Davis, Baltimore

What a year Davis is having, he is 2^nd in average, 1^st in HR, and 2^nd in RBI. Based on those numbers he probably should be the starter, although there are many solid 1^st Basemen in the AL. Davis has what appears to be an insurmountable lead over Prince Fielder of the Tigers, up by more than 1 million votes.

2B Robinson Cano, New York

The AL is fortunate to have two elite 2^nd Basemen, Cano is one and the Sox own Dustin Pedroia is the other. Currently, Cano leads Pedey by almost 775,000 votes. That lead looks secure unless Sox fans get out en masse and stuff the box for Pedroia before July 4^th. Let's go Red Sox Nation!

3B Miguel Cabrera, Detroit

The reigning Triple Crown winner can start packing his bags for New York. He not only has twice as many votes as Manny Machado of the Orioles, but is in contention to join Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby as the only players to win the Triple Crown twice. Cabrera also leads all AL players in votes.

SS JJ Hardy, Baltimore

This is the first real surprise in the AL voting, if not mostly because of JJ Hardy's lack of name recognition. It can be considered a down season for shortstops in the AL this year and Hardy has taken advantage leading the position in HR and RBI while also being 4^th in average. Elvis Andrus of the Rangers is 2^nd in the vote getting currently, but trails by a widening margin of less about 513,000. This looks to be Hardy's to lose.

LF Mike Trout, Anaheim

CF Adam Jones, Baltimore

RF Torii Hunter, Detroit

More surprises in the AL outfield as Jones leads in votes with nearly 30,000 more than Trout. Both are nearly doubling up Nick Markakis of the Orioles in the 3^rd spot. Torii Hunter of the Tigers, Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, Nelson Cruz of the Rangers, and another Orioles Nate McLouth are all within striking distance of Markakis. The top 3 vote getters all lead their positions in average, while Jones and Trout are putting up other numbers. Markakis' other numbers at not nearly as impressive. Given that Bautista has a history of racking up votes, it is possible that he will end up starting over Markakis, but the Orioles fans appear to be voting early and often this year.

DH David Ortiz, Boston

Big Papi has been tremendous since his return from the DL. Many pundits have said that Ortiz looks better at the plate this season than at any point in his career. Ortiz lead in the voting is very safe as he has twice as many votes as 2^nd place Lance Berkman of the Rangers.

Backups

C Carlos Santana, Cleveland, Jason Castro, Houston

Matt Wieters, Baltimore, Salvador Perez, Kansas City, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston, JP Arencibia, Toronto

Surprisingly there are several solid catching candidates in the AL. That said Santana is clearly the next best backstop behind Mauer. The decision to take a third catcher comes from the fact that Santana can also play 1^st Base and the Astros need for a representative. Castro has put together a very solid season and gets the Astros nod over 2^nd Baseman Jose Altuve. Salty again comes up short in his bid to make the All-Star team.

1B Prince Fielder, Detroit

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto, Mark Trumbo, Anaheim, Mike Napoli, Boston, Kendry Morales, Seattle, James Loney, Tampa Bay, Billy Butler, Kansas City

Even though there are many good 1^st Basemen in the AL, Fielder is the lone backup. Encarnacion is the next closest and may very well get the Jays bid but the need for roster flexibility wins out. The Sox Mike Napoli, who looked like a sure All-Star in April has cooled himself right off the roster.

2B Dustin Pedroia, Boston, Howie Kendrick, Anaheim

Jose Altuve, Houston, Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay, Jason Kipnis, Cleveland, Omar Infante, Detroit

Pedey has been arguably the best 2^nd Baseman in the AL and is a shoe-in for the All-Star roster. Kendrick has put up very good numbers on the West Coast and is near the top of the league in average.

3B Manny Machado, Baltimore, Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

Josh Donaldson, Oakland, Adrian Beltre, Texas, Kyle Seager, Seattle, Mark Reynolds, Cleveland

Machado keeps the Oriole All-Star parade on track with his high average and 32 doubles while Longoria could possibly be the Devil Rays lone representative if one of their pitchers don't make the roster. There are many worthy candidates left off the roster at 3^rd Base, one of those worthy candidates is not Boston's Will Middlebrooks with his sub-Mendozan average.

SS Jhonny Peralta, Detroit

Jed Lowrie, Oakland, Elvis Andrus, Texas, Alexei Ramirez, Chicago, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland

We already said that SS is a down year in the AL and because of that along with Machado's ability to play short, Peralta is the only backup. Peralta has been putting up great numbers to distance himself from the rest of the field. Boston's best bet for an All-Star SS at this point might be the hot hitting Jose Iglesias.

OF, Coco Crisp, Oakland, Alex Gordon, Kansas City, Alex Rios, Chicago, Jose Bautista, Toronto

Daniel Nava, Boston, Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston, Nelson Cruz, Texas, Nate McLouth, Baltimore, Brett Gardner, New York, Alejandro De Aza, Chicago, Torii Hunter, Detroit

As always there are many great outfielders in the AL. The backups in many ways reflect the terrible need for each team to have a representative as Rios and Bautista are the lone reps from the other Sox and Jays. Gordon has been solid for the Royals despite his recent slump. Crisp has put up good numbers and might get bounced from the roster before it all said and done. Hopefully, Ellsbury or Nava bounce the former Sox for that spot.

Pitchers

Clay Buchholz, Boston, Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle, Felix Hernandez, Seattle, Yu Darvish, Texas, Ervin Santana, Kansas City, Bartolo Colon, Oakland, Max Scherzer, Detroit, Matt Moore, Tampa Bay, Justin Masterson, Cleveland, Jim Johnson, Baltimore, Mariano Rivera, New York, Joe Nathan, Texas, Justin Verlander, Detroit

Hiroki Kuroda, New York, James Shields, Kansas City, Chris Sale, Chicago, Anibal Sanchez, Detroit, Jerome Williams, Anaheim, Bud Norris, Houston, Addison Reed, Chicago, Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay, Glen Perkins, Minnesota, Brett Cecil, Toronto, Tommy Hunter, Baltimore, Jesse Crain, Chicago

It is possible that more pitchers make the roster than the 14 we have chosen. Buchholz, Iwakuma, Darvish, Scherzer, Johnson, Rivera, and Nathan are locks to make the roster. Colon and Masterson are the next most likely to make the roster, leaving Hernandez, Santana, Moore, and Verlander as possibilities to be bumped. However, the others are not really close to being candidates with the exception of Kuroda. As far as Sox pitchers, Jon Lester, much like Napoli, looked like an All-Star in the early part of the season but with his recent collapse Lester has pitched his way into a mid-season vacation.

With a couple of weeks of voting still left and another until the roster selections are complete this roster is very fluid but this appears to be the right combination at this point.

Xander Does Pawtucket ( and Other Minor League/Draft News)

For those of you who were still waiting to go to Hadlock Field to see phenom Xander Bogaerts, you have waited too long.  On Thursday, June 13, the top Red Sox prospect ( as rated by Red Sox Maineiacs, and everyone else in the world) was promoted to AAA Pawtucket.  This was just a matter of time, due to the numbers Bogaerts was compiling at Portland. .311/.407/.502 with 12 doubles and a half dozen triples and home runs each.  He also drew 35 walks as opposed to 1 at Portland last August. In his AAA debut, he walked in an eight pitch at bat, additionally displaying his improved pitch selection. In his third time up, Bogaerts singled for his first AAA hit.  In addition to Bogaerts tearing up the Eastern League, the Red Sox decision to keep Jose Iglesias in Boston created a natural opening to promote Bogaerts.

About a week before Bogaerts' promotion, another member of the RSM top 12 prospects headed from Portland to Pawtucket.  Pitcher Brandon Workman went to AAA and in his first start pitched solidly.  5 2/3 innings while giving up 3 ER with 4K and 3 BB, Workman picked up the win in his AAA debut.

The Sea Dogs starter who has pitched even better than Brandon Workman seemingly will not be far behind on the promotion ladder.  Anthony Ranaudo has been outstanding in every start but one this year. His record is 7-1 with an ERA of 2.15 an a WHIP of 0.93, and after his most recent start has 76K in 67 IP. And what a most recent start it was.  Facing  Erie, the one team who battered Ranaudo for seven runs in his only poor start, Ranaudo pitched 7 2/3 innings allowing only 2 hits and 2 walks while fanning 13 batters. This tied the Sea Dogs team record for strikeouts, last done by Jon Lester in 2005,     (in a game witnessed by some of the Maineiacs.)  Ranaudo cannot be many starts way from joining Brandon and Xander in Rhode Island.

Today, June 14, the Red Sox recalled a pitcher of the day from AAA for the fourth day in a row.  Today it is highly touted prospect,  Rubby de La Rosa.  One of the two jewels pried from the Dodgers last summer, Rubby has 38 strikeouts in 38  IP at AAA with a 3.29 ERA.  He will work out of the Boston pen, and it may be just for a few days this time, but De La Rosa can help this team this year.

Finally, let's touch on a dozen or so of the names the Red Sox took in last weeks' amateur draft.

Round One. Trey Ball, LHP Indiana HS
Round Two. Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP Juco
Round Three Jon Denney C  Oklahoma HS

First rounder, Trey Ball, has had the most publicity, he was the ninth rated draft prospect by Baseball America and the top lefty handed pitcher.  He has not signed yet but is expected to, and likely be assigned to the Gulf Coast League.  Stankiewicz has signed and may be going to Lowell.  He is a hard thrower who was drafted out of high school last year also in the second round by the Mets but did not sign.  The sleeper and potentially the best player taken in this draft is catcher Jon Denney.  The high schooler from Oklahoma is considered one of the top power hitters in the draft, with enough power to play first base if catching does not work out.  He was the #25 prospect according to BA, but the Sox snagged him at 81.  Some very early mock drafts in the early spring had the Sox taking him at #7, so a pick at 81 may turn out to be a bargain.

Round Four. Myles Smith, RHP NAIA College
Round Five Corey Littrell LH Univ. of Kentucky
Round Six Jordon Austin, HS OF

Both SmithBA 108) and Littrell ( BA130) are good pitching prospects, Littrell is considered a harder throwing version of Pawsox starter Chris Hernandez.  Austin was not rated in the top 500 by Baseball America, but is a very toolsy high schooler who is expected to have a reasonable chance of signing.

Round 11 Carlos Asauge, SS Nova Southeastern, Div 2
Round 13 Jordan Sheffield, RHP Florida HS
Round 19 Gabe Speier, LHP HS
Round 30 Nick Longhi, OF Florida HS

Both Asauge and Speier have signed, Asuage ( BA 208) is expected to play 2B in the pros, and his strength is his ability to excel at hitting leadoff.  Speier ( BA 265) fell due to signability issues but he signed for twice the post round ten slot of $100,000.  Longhi is another high schooler not expected to sign, but since the draft there have been some rumblings from his camp that he may.

According to conflicting reports, Sheffield may or may not be the nephew or cousin of Gary Sheffield. Young Sheffield was expected to go in the first round or two( he was rated at 88 by BA), but had arm woes in his senior year.  In rounds 7 through 10 the Sox drafted some lesser prospects that will sign for minimal cash in hopes of saving enough to sign someone like Sheffield.

Two other interesting names  were drafted in the later rounds by Boston.  First is a Minnesota high school outfielder named Ryan Boldt, who the Sox drafted in round 22.  He is another player who missed his entire senior year to injury, and was considered a sure first round pick before being hurt.  Even with the injury, Baseball America ranked him at #58 overall for this draft.  He has a full boat to Nebraska to play college baseball, and since the draft has all ready stated his intent to go to Nebraska.  It is estimated to take $2.5 million to change Boldt's mind ( if any amount can)and with the new slot rules the Red Sox may not have that amount to spend.  But this is a name to at least watch during the signing season.  Another player taken by Boston in round 29 was from the University of Florida, Jeff Driskel.  He was taken as an outfielder even though his current position at Florida is quarterback.  Driskel is the starting QB for the Gators and has not played baseball since high school.  Driskel expressed complete bewilderment at being selected in the baseball draft, and said he is not going to sign.  However, there are some special signing guidelines for two sport college players, and he could sign with Boston and continue he college football career, and decide on his sport down the road.

In another three weeks or so the July rankings of the Top 12 Sox Prospects will appear here at RSM.

Maineiacs Monday Live Chat: Sox at Devil Rays 6-10-13

Red Sox Begin Push to the Half Way Marks

The Red Sox finished another strong home stand today by taking 2 of 3 from the Angels matching the result versus Texas to begin the stand.  After 64 games the Red Sox are 39-25, 1 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees with the Rays and Orioles nipping at the New Yorkers' heels.  The Sox have a winning percentage of .609, which ( cliche alert) puts them on a pace for 98 to 99 wins.  I am still not sure the Red Sox win that many, but I am more sure that the AL East champ will not need to win that many.

So now the Red Sox begin a stretch of games over the next month or so, that will bring them to the statistical halfway mark of the season, and then onto the traditional "halfway" mark, the All Star break.

Beginning tomorrow the Red Sox begin a 10 game stretch versus two of their main competitors for the AL East crown: Tampa Bay and Baltimore.  Beginning with a seven game trip, 3 with Rays and 4 in Baltimore.  The Red Sox then come home for a pit stop two day three game series again with the Rays.  On the 18th there is a day-night doubleheader to make up for a April 12th rainout.

Following the AL East games, the Red Sox go to Detroit to play four with the Tigers, the toughest non AL East team( along with Texas).  The Sox then come home again for an more appropriately long home stand, a nine gamer: 2 with the Rockies, 4 with the Jays and 3 with the Padres.  The first of these games with Toronto, barring any rainouts will be game 81, half through the 162.

To bring the Red Sox up to the July 16th All Star Game ( and up to game 97) they venture on a ten game west coast swing: 3 in Anaheim, 4 in Seattle and 3 in Oakland.  This will be the only trip Boston makes to all three of these cities, although there is one remaining left coast trip, it will be to play the Giants and Dodgers three each in August.

There are several challenges which jump out from those games beginning with the immediate ten games in the division.  This will be an opportunity to keep both teams in the Sox rear view mirror and a  record of anything like 7-3 would likely increase the lead over both.  Catching the Tigers in their own ball park present their own set of challenges ( Miggy, Prince, Verlander, and the other Tiger starters, etc.)  And of course any long west coast trip is potentially fraught with peril, but hopefully the Sox can fatten up on the Angels and Mariners.

Let's take a look at a few concerns going into the next 33 games.

Nagging injures-- Other than closer Joel Hanrahan, the Sox have avoided any long term or season ending injuries.  But all season the Sox have been bit with nagging or ongoing injuries.  This has involved mostly Shane Victorino, Will Middlebrooks, David Ross,  Jacoby Ellsbury, and recently Clay Buchholz. Of course of these Buchholz is the one Boston must have healthy.  After leaving Saturday night's start with a sore neck, he may be looking at another missed start, as he did recently.  Even if he has to miss a scheduled start versus Baltimore, they have to play it safe here.

Outfield Depth/Pop-- Referring back to the nagging ills of Ellsbury and Victorino( especially), if these two can go nearly every day in CF and RF, the Sox have plenty of depth in left with Nava, Gomes, Mike Carp, and maybe even JBJr.  As a matter of fact Nava may be able to hold down left every day on his own. But if Jacoby and Shane cannot go to the post with regularity, the Sox may well need to trade for another OF bat sooner rather than later.

Shortstop/Third Base Triangle-- In other words, what hath Jose Iglesias wreaked here?  How close is Jose to making his way in the everyday line up, even when ( if?) Middlebrooks comes back from Pawtucket.  By all indications Iglesias is at least going to stay and take Pedro Ciriaco's utility job.  But with Jose hitting better than either Middlebrooks or Stephen Drew, what gives?  I believe the Sox may take their time and let Middlebrooks work out some of his batting issues at AAA ( he can be left on rehab for up to 20 days, and could be optioned down for more if need be).  But I still think they need the power production Will can bring if he gets his stroke back and is healthy.  Would the Sox hand the keys to shortstop to Jose over Drew?  I doubt it ....yet.

Keep on Keeping on with Starters-- Buchholz was discussed above, all they need from the others is more of the same.  Although an uptick from Doubront would be nice.  And Jon Lester needs to prevent any backslide to the 2012 Lester.

Overworked Pen?--I think that Farrell and Nieves have managed this so far, and have been careful to attempt to avoid back to back days for guys like Uehara.  But with the pitch count dominated game today, it seems like the pen is asked to work at least 2 innings, if not more, every day.  But with the exception of Felix , I think the other starters can toss up an occasional (or more often) 8 inning start.

So there is no question from June 10 until the All Star Break could determine if we have a contender here in Boston in 2013.  If the Sox can keeping winning a majority of each series, as they have so far, the answer is gonna be YES.

RSM Red Sox Top 12 Prospects- June

The calendar has turned to June and it is time for the Maineiacs to reassess the Red Sox stars of the future.  The top three are locked in place, with two big movers up the Top Ten pushing some other down a couple of notches ( or more in one case).  The number behind the players name is May's ranking and the slash line for the batters are HR/RBI/BA/OBP and for the hurlers  W-L/ERA/K-BB/WHIP.  The stats are as of June 1.

1. Xander Bogaerts, SS - Portland {1}  Bogaerts has hit his stride in May getting hotter and hotter at the dish.  His best game was on May 29 driving in 5 with two home runs and a double. Xander is hitting 5/30/.298/.391.  With the idea of leaving Jose Iglesias in Boston as a spare infielder, can Bogaerts promotion be far behind?

2. Jackie Bradley, Jr., OF- Pawtucket {2} Jackie had a bit of a slow start at AAA, after his early season Boston stint.  But after a brief DL stint Bradley, Jr. caught fire.  He recently had a nine game stretch of multiple times reaching base.  His stats upon a recent recall to Boston were 2/9/.354/.457, putting up other worldly OBP as he did at Salem the first half of last year.  On June 1st at Yankee Stadium, Bradley, Jr. had his best offensive game in the big leagues with 2 doubles and a single.

3. Allen Webster, P- Pawtucket {3} Despite a disappointing second big league start in May, Webster is still dealing at AAA at a tune of 5-0/2.57/48-20/1.05.  He is ready if and when the Red Sox need another start, in the meantime he will continue to cement his standing as top Sox pitching prospect.

4. Bryce Brentz, OF- Pawtucket {5} The stats Brentz has posted so far in his first full AAA season are a perfect illustration of what you should expect from a Brentz big league career.  Lots of power and a .275 BA ( 10/39/.275/.324).  Bryce has K'd 54 times, but this goes with his power game.

5. Garin Cecchini, 3B- Salem {8} Garin has put together the most outstanding season of any batter in the system to date.  5/28/.360/.463.  If Cecchini reaches the end of June with similar stats, he could force his way into the Sea Dogs lineup. If Will Middlebrooks continues his struggles, Cecchini will be right in the middle, if not the forefront, of the Red Sox future third base picture.

6. Anthony Ranaudo, P- Portland {10} Just as Cecchini has been the dominant offensive player, Ranudo has been the elite pitcher so far. Therefore they both shoot up the top ten.  After a horrible injury riddled 2012 at Portland, Anthony has returned to lights out pitching: 6-1/1.48/58-15/0.84.
In his last May start he pitched seven innings of one-hit shutout ball with 8 K's at New Hampshire. At this point in time Ranaudo is the main challenger to Webster for top Sox pitching prospect. Any time Ranaudo goes to the hill for the Sea Dogs could be the last before he is promoted to Pawtucket.

7. Henry Owens, P - Salem {6}  May presented a few bumps in the road for Owens, as he pitched well, just not matching the outstanding April.  By June 1st, Owens' line was at 3-2/3.53/62-19/1.10.  The 62 strikeouts have come in 51 innings pitched.

8. Matt Barnes, P- Portland {4} The fairly substantial drop in the rankings really are more of a commentary of the guys who have passed him more than Barnes.  But out of the four young gun hurlers at Hadlock, Barnes is the most likely to need the entire season at AA. Barnes' season has been up and down as the 4.50 ERA as of June 1st shows. ( and his June 2nd start at home vs. Altoona did not help his numbers as Matt failed to pitch out of the second inning allowing three homers in the second.)  There is still plenty to like about Barnes as a potential big league starter, but he has some more work to do.

9. Rubby De La Rosa, P- Pawtucket {7}  This is one of the more misleading rankings as Rubby slips down a couple spots again.  But as De La Rosa gets further into his recovery from Tommy John surgery he still has an excellent opportunity to help Boston, perhaps in the bullpen this season.  If not for the outstanding seasons by the players ahead of Rubby, he would likely still be a top five prospect.

10. Blake Swihart, C- Salem {9} Along with Cecchini, Swihart is compiling a strong year at High A.  The top young catching prospect for Boston is hitting 0/18/.287/.372.  The outstanding OBP highlighting his year so far.

11. Brandon Workman, P- Portland {11} Workman has nearly matched Ranaudo in  outstanding pitching so far.  5-1/3.43/74-17/1.04.  Also like Ranudo, Brandon is a candidate for a recall to AAA.

12. Jose Iglesias, SS- Pawtucket/Boston {14}  Everyone knows and is baffled by his story. Cannot hit at AAA, and cannot be retired in the bigs.  The Sox are hinting they may keep Jose as their utility infielder after Middlebroks is healthy.

The remaining candidates for the Top 12.

13. Deven Marrero, SS
14. Christian Vazquez, C
15. Ryan Lavarnway. C  seems to me to be on the outs in Boston??
16. Alex Wilson, RP  only the roster numbers crunch kept him from staying in Boston
17. Brian Johnson, P
18. Sean Coyle, 2B
19. Michael Almanzar, 1B-3B
20. Mookie Betts, 2B
20A David Chester, 1B  9 Homers with 42 RBI while hitting .260/.344

2013 MLB Draft Primer Notes

There is no doubt that the MLB annual draft of amateur talent is not as sexy as the NFL or NBA versions, which are full of college players all ready well known to much of the sporting public. But with the advent of live televised coverage of the first two rounds of the baseball draft on the MLB Network the last few years it is easier to follow along.  June 6 is this year's draft opening night.

And for we Red Sox fans this year's draft is the "reward" for the terrible finish to the 2012 season.  The Red Sox will pick at #7, which is the first time they have picked this high in 20 years.  At that time the Red Sox took high school outfielder Trot Nixon.  Only one other time in the entire history of this draft, which dates back to the 1960's have the Sox drafted higher than 7, a #3 which was pitcher Mike Garman.  And since the Red Sox front office and the fans hope to not draft this high again for a long, long time it behooves the Sox cash in on this year's #7.  Later on we will discuss some of the names most associated with the Sox number 7 pick so far.

This is the order of the top ten picks in 2013:

1. Astros

2. Cubs

3. Rockies

4. Twins

5. Indians

6. Marlins

7. Red Sox

8. Royals

9. Pirates

10. Blue Jays

Based on the consensus of a number of different rankings and mock drafts, here is a list of the expected top baker's dozen players to be considered in the top ten picks.  Not necessarily in order, but instead in three groupings of players:

" The Top Three"

1. Mark Appel     RHP   Stanford Univ.
2. Jonathan Gray  RHP   U of Oklahoma
3. Kris Bryant         3B     U San Diego


Next Five College Players

1. Colin Moran       3B      UNC
2. Sean Manaea*   LHP    Indiana State
3. Ryne Stanek      RHP   Arkansas
4. Braden Shipley  RHP   Nevada
5. DJ Peterson      3B/1B   New Mexico

Top Five High School Players

1. Kohl Stewart     RHP     Houston, TX
2. Clint Frazier        OF      Loganville, GA
3. Austin Meadows  OF     Loganville, GA
4. Trey Ball            LHP     Indiana
5. Reese McGuire     C       Washington


There have been another name or three mentioned near the end of the top ten, but this is the consensus top dozen.  The reason there are thirteen names in our top dozen is the same reason there is an asterisk by the name Sean Manaea.  He is a hard throwing lefty who absolutely dazzled the Cape Cod League last summer. He left there in the running to be the overall top pick in this draft.  But his junior season at Indiana State had not matched the Cape results, and then came whispers of  hip soreness.  Then as the scouts flocked to his start last week, he was scratched with "left shoulder soreness".  At this point, unless he can pitch again before the draft he may plunge down the draft, maybe out of the first round.

As far as the top three, nearly everyone expects Appel and Gray (or Gray and Appel) to be the first two picks, with the Cubs gladly taking whoever Houston does not.  Despite the long standing need for pitching in Colorado, Bryant is such an outstanding power hitter that the Rockies will take him. There is only one seemingly plausible scenario that could upset this apple cart.  There are more and more rumors that Houston may try to cut a deal ( technically illegal, but still done) with someone other than the top 3 to save some slot money for later in the draft.  UNC 3B Colin Moran is the most oft mentioned candidate.

But as we try to narrow down on the Red Sox options we will assume the top three are out of their reach.  But rest assured if any of these three make it to #7 by some fluke, the Red Sox will say thank you very much and grab them.  In addition to the Top 3, there are two other names on the list who generally are considered lower than #7 picks, unless a team looking to cut a below slot deal takes them earlier than expected. The two are Reese McGuire and DJ Peterson.  The Sox are not expected to be the team to cut that type of deal with them.  And assuming the Red Sox do not risk their high pick on the injured Manaea ( which is a low probability, but not entirely out of the question, I think), that leaves us with seven names for the Sox to consider.

Colin Moran
Ryne Stanek
Braden Shipley
Kohl Stewart
Clint Frazier
Austin Meadows
Trey Ball

There have been two schools of thought floated by the draft gurus about Boston.  One is they want a college pitcher, almost no matter what, because high school picks are riskier and a college pitcher taken this high could be big league ready in two years or so.  The other school of thought is this once in a  generation ( hopefully) high pick must be cashed in on the highest ceiling prospect no matter of risk.  Kind of an all in attitude. I personally subscribe to this approach.

Our list of seven includes only two college pitchers, and in his latest mock draft, Keith Law of ESPN has Boston taking Ryne Stanek.  Without the injury, Stanek has followed a similar path to Manaea.  He was considered in the top four picks, but a so-so junior season has raised some questions.  The scouts say he has overpowering stuff, but has command issues and some mechanics that need some refinement as well.   One report I read recently said he may have a bullpen future (although most say a #2 or #3 starter is his ceiling) and the scout compared him to Daniel Bard.

Braden Shipley is intriguing due to the "freshness" of his arm.  He was a shortstop until last year when he began to pitch as a sophomore in college. He is described a extremely athletic and throws around 96.

As far as the high schoolers, Kohl Stewart is a Texas schoolboy pitcher/quarterback who has a full ride to Texas A&M as a QB.  Most scouts feel despite the high regard for Appel and Gray, that Stewart is actually the best pitcher in the draft.  Jim Callis of Baseball America, for one says Stewart is the guy most coveted by Boston. ( But he mock drafts them as taking Frazier- Stewart to the Twins)

The two high outfielders ( and yes there are both from the same town in Georgia, but different high schools) Frazier and Meadows have both been considered top 5 type prospects.  Frazier in particular is considered to have off the chart bat speed.  Meadows has stumbled a bit in his senior year, and at this point Frazier is considered the better of the two.  Frazier is another name rumored to be on Houston's radar as a possible below slot signing at #1.

Trey Ball started his senior year with the scouts split 50/50 if he should be drafted as a power hitting outfielder or power pitcher.  His fastball has risen to around 93 this season and almost all now see Ball as a pitcher.  A Henry Owens who throws harder as one scout called him.


So if the top three go as expected, which other three will be off the board for Boston?  Let's check some speculation.

4. Twins.  Two rumored paths here most often.  One is the Twins will cut a below slot deal with Reese McGuire.  The other is the player the Twins really, really want here is Kohl Stewart.  The McGuire deal would be a boon to Boston, as most people feel if Stewart does not go here he will make it to 7. I am not sure the Twins will want to overpay to get Stewart.

5. Indians-  Two names also mentioned here Colin Moran and Braden Shipley.  The fact that Manaea and Stanek have slipped hurts the Red Sox because those two could have been the 4/5 picks pushing the entire list of 7( except Stanek) names down to Boston's pick.  I think Cleveland would be desperate for pitching, but Moran is the name heard most often.

6. Marlins. This could be a big break for Boston as almost all expect the Marlins to cut a deal with some one down the board, likely DJ Peterson, or even someone further down the board.  Shipley is mentioned here some, but I bet the Marlins cheap it out here

So at this point 12 days before the draft, I think the Sox are leaning towards Clint Frazier and it looks like he could be available.  If Kohl Stewart makes it to them, I think it would be a close, close decision between those two high schoolers.  Worse case the Twins take Stewart, the Tribe plucks Moran, and Marlins man up and take Frazier, I think the Sox would lean to Braden Shipley.

This has gone on longer than the first round may take, but any other names or changes that bubble up between now and June 6 we will discuss it here.

Red Sox Place Victorino and Middlebrooks on DL

Repeat after me, Alfredo Aceves was banished to Pawtucket weeks ago, and he is never returning to pitch for the Boston Red Sox again.  There is a better chance of Jose Iglesias starting at third base for the Red Sox that Alfredo ever gracing the Fenway pen again.

Wait, what? who?? when??? where???

Today after nagging injuries to both players, the Red Sox disabled both Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks with hamstring and lower back injuries.  Neither necessarily required the 15 days, but in an attempt to get both guys healthy and to get enough bodies on the roster, they have been DL'd.

To replace them the Red Sox recalled Alfredo Aceves, mostly because of the pounding the bullpen took last night. To replace Willie Middle, the Sox called up and installed as the starting third baseman none other than Jose Iglesias ( he of one professional game at third--earlier this week at Pawtucket.)

Aceves, it is suspected is here due to the crunch on the staff, and due to the fact he is on the 40 man roster ( plus Franklin Morales, who may be ready to help pitched 5 innings for the Sea Dogs just yesterday.)  In a day or so, the conventional wisdom is that Jackie Bradley will be up to replace Victorino for the duration of the DL stint.

In addition the Sox activated David Ross from the concussion DL and sent Ryan Lavarnway back to AAA.  Based on the lack of playing time, even against some left handed starters this past week or so, it seems to me the current Sox brass is becoming less and less enamored with Lavaarnway.

If it ever stops raining Iglesias is in the lineup tonight batting ninth and playing third.  If Iglesias gets two weeks of so of at bats while Middlebrooks is out, and he hits with any competency the put Jose at shortstop cry may begin anew.

My Favorite Moment of the 2013 Red Sox Season

After Koji Uehara finished off a 1-2-3 eighth inning last night, he stampeded his way through the Red Sox dugout with his delightful KOJI HIGH FIVES routine.  Only Shane Victorino was sitting up on the rail, minding his own business.  That's when Uehara uncorked a vicious arm slap leading to the best facial expression ever.  I love the mix of horror and glee on Vic's face.  It's as though his arm hurts like a bitch, but he still can't help but love that crazy, messed up Japanese dude.  Enjoy:

Koji embodies all that is good about the 2013 Red Sox.  After the lifeless group of underachievers playing here a year ago, Koji is a breath of wild, exciting fresh air.  It's as if last year we (as in all of Red Sox Nation) were dating a woman who had the looks of a 9, but was heartless and cold and shallow and no fun whatsoever to be around.  This year, RSN gets to date a solid 7, but she is funny and smart and vivacious.  And we are so much better off for it.

Also, I have ripped the NESN player bio segment many times so far this season, but I loved Koji's bio last night.  For anybody who may have missed it, Uehara's favorite food is....wait for it...a McDonald's Filet 'o Fish!  Seriously?!?!?! Has anybody ever had a Filet 'o Fish? It tastes like a straight up patty of hot garbage covered in cheap cheese and watery tartar sauce.  But somehow it fits Koji perfectly.  I imagine him reaching out of his car to give the drive thru employee a hand-killing high five, then tearing into his filet 'o fish with enormous bites, cackling maniacally, and peeling out of the McDonald's with cheap fish burger flying all over his face and car.  I love the guy.

Maineiacs Monday Chat...on a Tuesday but, hey it's the Sox and the Bruins

Early...Really Early Trade Deadline thoughts

As the Red Sox deal with some struggles in the month of May confidence remains high in Red Sox Nation.  This team still appears to have what it takes to compete in a very even AL east.  As Memorial Day gets closer the evaluation period of what this team has and what it needs is starting to become more clear.  With that being said let's take a look at a few areas that this team will need to strengthen if they want to remain in contention for the duration of the season.  Keep in mind that the Red Sox are not likely to give up much in the way of minor league prospects.  However, there may be a few moveable parts on the major league roster and a few minor leaguers who could be used as chips to acquire depth pieces, but I don't expect that they'll make any big time splashes this season as they keep an eye on 2014 and '15 as the years the front office really expects them to compete for a World Series title.

Here are three areas where they may look to add to the team through trades:

1. Bullpen- With Hanrahan being out for the season and Bailey being injury prone this team still has plenty of talent at the back of the bullpen to be successful.  However, with over use being a concern with pitchers like Uehera and Tazawa they would be smart to add some depth to the middle relief/set-up corps.  A dependable veteran type pitcher would go along way towards stabilizing the bullpen.  A few players already on the 40 man roster will also play a role in this.  Franklin Morales could be a valuable piece to the bullpen if he gets healthy and returns to his 2012 form.  Injuries to the bullpen make it unlikely that they will try to get him stretched out to be a starter (more on that later).  It is now pretty clear that Daniel Bard will never be a major factor in the Red Sox bullpen again.  The only questions remaining with him are how long can they afford to keep him on the 40 man roster and can they use him as part of a trade to get any sort of decent major league player?  Rubby de la Rosa is a possibility, as a player already in the system, who could be a major influence as a set up man or closer by the end of the year.  He'll need to master his command in order for that to happen.  
2. Outfield- So far Shane Victorino has proven that he was a worthy signing, surprising many who follow the team.  However, it is clear that with his reckless style of play he is certain to miss chunks of time with injuries.  This makes outfield depth, especially defensively, a concern.  They could use a veteran who is capable of playing all three outfield positions well and capable of contributing with the bat.  Jackie Bradley Jr (who is on the 15 day DL at Pawtucket currently) may very well still be a factor this season.  Bryce Brentz and Jeremy Hazelbaker are both proving to be options if needed.  Both of them would need to be added to the 40 man roster. Daniel Nava and Mike Carp have been very good so far this year, but will it last? Brentz and Bradley Jr. are a big part of the future, but for this season they could use a major league veteran to fill out their outfield depth.  Someone like David Murphy would be a good fit, but Texas may not be willing to part with him. 
3. Starting Pitching- The starting pitching has been very good so far.  Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester look like All Stars this year.  Ryan Dempster and John Lackey have been able to meet expectations so far.  Felix Doubront has been the weak link, but he's young and still has plenty of talent.  Let's not give up on him too soon.  However, the depth of the rotation doesn't look to be as solid as we may have thought in spring training and early in the season.  Let me be very clear though, the Red Sox have a lot of promising young starting pitchers at AA and AAA.  Allen Webster, Steven Wright, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes and Rubby de la Rosa are all pitching well to very well in the minor leagues.  The AA starters have been extremely impressive.  I have a hunch that Brandon Workman may provide a boost to the major league staff before the end of the year and Ranaudo could be a factor in the bullpen a la Jonathan Papelbon.  I don't expect any of these players to be included in a trade, but I also think that this year's team could use a veteran starter who could bolster the back end of the rotation.  

Extra Thoughts on trades in 2013:

• Who could the Red Sox give up in a trade to get some of these pieces back (I'm sure you're all asking yourselves that question)?  The Red Sox seem to have tradeable depth at catcher and shortstop.  They could trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Stephen Drew off the major league roster if they feel that Ryan Lavarnway or Jose Iglesias are able to fill those spots or they could trade Lavarnway or Iglesias if they don't think they are ready.  Deven Merrero could also be trade bait because of their SS depth in the minor league system.  That's unlikely though.  Michael Almanzar, a corner infielder at AA has seen his value rise as he has resurrected his career and he may be someone they look to include in a trade for the right player.  A young, talented, hard throwing left hander like Felix Doubront could be a valuable trade chip, but they'd have to get a good return. 
• Any major trades would have to include Jacoby Ellsbury, but again that is highly unlikely.  For one he is not producing well enough yet to get the type of return they would want. 
• If Daniel Bard could turn himself around he could be a throw in type player that a low payroll team may take a chance on or an organization like the St. Louis Cardinals, who have had some success with reclamation projects, may take a chance on him.  
• Major league fringe players like Pedro Ciriaco, Mike Carp and Clayton Mortensen could be traded for players of similar ability, but with different skill sets. 
• Alex Wilson has pitched well this year and while the Sox may not want to part with him other teams may find him desirable.  Andrew Miller has also pitched well lately and with Craig Breslow and perhaps Morales coming back he may be available as a trade chip. 
• Ben Cherington may not wait until the trade deadline to try and strike a trade.  He could try and pull off a late May trade like the Byung Hyun Kim trade of 2003.  Sometimes it is easier to swap major league players prior to the trade deadline.  Most sellers at the trade deadline are looking to rebuild with prospects which the Sox don't want to part with this year.  An early trade may make more sense, so Ben Cherington should look to strike soon.  Then if they are still in contention in late July they may consider (strong emphasis on may) trading off some of their prospects.  Or they may take their chances with waiver trades in August, which they've had pretty good luck with in recent memory.  
• The possibility does exist that this team may not be in serious contention come late July if that is the case the Red Sox will have plenty of pieces that they could trade off without hurting their chances of competing in 2014 and '15.  Players like Stephen Drew, John Lackey, Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey, Koji Uehera, Daniel Nava, Jacoby Ellsbury and a few others could bring back valuable building blocks for the future.  I don't think that they would want to get rid of the key veteran leaders that they acquired this past offseason like David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli.  They want those guys to be around to mentor some of the young players that they have on the way.  But, if the LA Dodgers blow their doors off again anything can happen. 
• Who's untouchable on the major league team? Dustin Pedroia, Will Middlebrooks (no other 3B options in the system), Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Junichi Tazawa and David Ortiz (for iconic reasons, "this is our fu%$ing city", and because he continues to produce) are all proving to be valuable core players that they want to continue to build around.  
• Who's untouchable in the minor leagues? Jackie Bradley Jr, Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa, Bryce Brentz, Brandon Workman, Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Christian Vasquez, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart and Henry Owens appear to be untouchables.  Borderline untouchables are Deven Merrero, Garin Cecchini and Sean Coyle.  

Is it too early to think about trades? Do you disagree with any of our evaluations? Let's hash it out in the comments section...